In December 2018, the central economic working conference first proposed "new infrastructure", namely new infrastructure construction. The meeting stressed that "we need to increase the technological transformation and equipment renewal of the manufacturing industry, accelerate the pace of 5g business, strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, Internet of things, increase investment in inter city transportation, logistics, municipal infrastructure, and make up for the shortcomings in rural infrastructure and public service facilities. Since 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, The high-level voice again frequently paid close attention to the "new infrastructure" and pointed out for the first time that "the new infrastructure mainly includes 5g infrastructure, ultra-high voltage, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and other seven fields". It can be seen that under the background of the rapid increase of pressure in the economic stage caused by the epidemic, It is self-evident that the government uses new infrastructure as a breakthrough to stimulate consumption and promote investment to stabilize economic growth.
Aladdin (ALD) believes that 5g infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway, rail transit, new energy vehicles and other important areas involved in the new infrastructure are important areas of aluminum consumption, and its large-scale investment and construction will certainly lead to a new round of aluminum consumption growth, which is undoubtedly a major good for the current weak downstream consumption. In combination with the investment amount of nearly 50 trillion yuan announced by each province in the near future (including the total planned investment of 7.6 trillion yuan in 2020), and considering the aluminum unit consumption in various fields, we expect that the consumption increment of nearly 969900 tons of aluminum will be brought by the new infrastructure in 2020, which is the visible increment under the condition of not considering that the development of charging piles will greatly promote the consumption of new energy vehicles The marginal contribution of aluminum consumption brought by new infrastructure is more significant (and under the stress of macroeconomic downturn, the government is likely to introduce relevant policies to support the field of new energy vehicles).
5g construction is ready to launch, and the total aluminum consumption of base station is limited
2019 is known as the first year of 5g business. Countries are competing to introduce encouraging policies for 5g construction, and the infrastructure construction represented by 5g ushers in a period of rapid development. On December 22, Li Yizhong, former Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said: China will build 6 million 5g base stations in seven years, with a total investment of nearly 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion. By the end of December 2019, 5g network services that enter into commercial development in China have been accumulatively opened more than 126000 groups of 5g network base stations, and will strive to achieve 5g network coverage in all prefecture level cities in China by the end of 2020. According to this calculation, the general plan of base station construction this year The number of modules can reach 650000-800000. According to the survey of Aladdin, the aluminum demand for 5g construction is mainly concentrated in the base station, accounting for about 90%, while the aluminum for 5g base station is mainly concentrated in photovoltaic inverter, 5g antenna, 5g base station cooling material and thermal transmission, etc., the main material is aluminum alloy plate 3003 and 1100. According to the current aluminum ratio of 40kg / main flow equipment manufacturer, 5g base station will consume about 28000 tons of aluminum in 2020, considering Aluminum alloy 3003 and 1100 to the base station need to consume a certain amount of waste aluminum, and 5g will consume about 25000 tons of aluminum.
The speed of high-speed rail and rail transit has been increased again, and the traffic aluminum consumption has increased steadily
At the beginning of 2020, the new crown epidemic continued to ferment, the downward pressure of the global economy increased sharply, and infrastructure such as high-speed rail and rail transit, as the adhesive to drive social and economic development, stood on the wave again under the background of economic downturn.
According to the data of regional development and Reform Commission, in 2019, 12 regional urban rail transit projects (Metro, tram) were approved by national and provincial development and Reform Commission, involving about 59 urban rail transit lines, with a total investment of about 970 billion yuan. Among them, about 29 lines are under construction (2 lines are in trial operation period), and the remaining 30 lines are expected to be fully constructed in 2020. "Considering that the construction cycle of urban rail transit is usually longer than one year, it is estimated that the investment scale in this year will be about 40% - 50% of the total investment, that is, in 2020, the investment scale of urban rail transit is expected to reach about 400-500 billion yuan, and the operation mileage of rail transit is expected to exceed 8000 kilometers.
In the operation lines of rail transit, Metro, urban fast rail and tram are the main lines, with Metro accounting for 75.6%, urban fast rail accounting for 11.1%, and tram accounting for 5.7%. ALD estimates that rail transit will bring about 51300 tons of aluminum consumption in 2020.
Data source: Rail Transit Network